Bitcoin Metrics Align for Extended Bull Run as Price Holds Above Six Figures: Analysts

Bitcoin is trading above $100,000 while its realized price is around $45,000, observed CryptoQuant researcher Axel Adler on May 14. He added that the daily realized price yield ranges from 0.10% to 0.23%, which is roughly 36% to 85% annualized.

Bitcoin’s realized price reflects the average price at which all BTC was last transacted on-chain, weighted by the supply. It offers a more accurate representation of the market’s cost basis compared to the current market price.

Meanwhile, the 30-day simple moving average is around 0.10% per day or around 35% to 40% annualized.

“These positive yet moderate returns indicate a sustained bull phase underpinned by solid fundamentals,” he said.

Bitcoin is trading near $100K, with the realized price around $45K and still climbing. Daily RP yield ranges from 0.10% to 0.23% (approximately 36–85% annualized), while the 30-day SMA sits at about 0.10% (around 35–40% annualized).

These positive yet moderate returns indicate… pic.twitter.com/yv4yyAojf7

— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) May 14, 2025

Retail Returning to Markets

Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has added almost $30 billion after a period of stagnation in April. The metric is growing at roughly 3% per month, it added.

However, while the uptick confirms renewed capital inflows, the pace still lags behind the aggressive accumulation seen in November and December 2024 following the election of US President Donald Trump.

It also observed that Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized price has climbed to $45,340, “reflecting the aging of coins bought around $90K to $100K into long-term status.” Buyers from December are now long-term holders, “gradually lifting the cohort’s cost basis,” it added.

After a period of stagnation in April, #Bitcoin‘s Realized Cap has added nearly $30B, currently growing at ~3% monthly. While the uptick confirms renewed capital inflows, the pace still lags behind the aggressive accumulation seen in Nov–Dec ’24. pic.twitter.com/kE6EbuevlC

— glassnode (@glassnode) May 14, 2025

This signals reduced selling pressure as distribution risk from the long-term holder cohort eases, keeping sentiment bullish.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analysts reported that retail was returning to Bitcoin markets. On May 14, they noted that small retail investors with balances below $10,000 were gradually returning to Bitcoin, signaling renewed market confidence.

From April 28 to May 13, there was a 3.4% increase in purchases from this group. “As they enter the market, they tend to create a positive feedback loop, reinforcing bullish narratives and increasing buying pressure,” they said.

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin’s intraday high was just over $104,000 on Wednesday, but markets have cooled off since, with the asset falling below $102,000 during the Thursday morning Asian trading session.

It has spent a week holding above six figures, however, and the longer it does so, the more likely it is to move higher.

BTC has made 20% over the past month and is currently just 5.6% away from its January all-time high of $108,786, according to CoinGecko.

Technical analyst Tony Severino said that range breakouts “tend to be strong and happen in one large weekly candle,” suggesting that this could happen by the end of May.

Range breakouts in Bitcoin tend to be strong and happen in one large weekly candle, closing above the upper Bollinger Band for confirmation

Bulls want to see this within two weeks, leading to a strong May close pic.twitter.com/LydL73how3

— Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) May 14, 2025